🧃America left the group chat

Welcome to The Strawman, the daily climate newsletter that’s somehow still powering forward. Today’s forecast: mild diplomatic chaos with a chance of greenwashing.

Climate Financing Just Got Ghosted

In what’s becoming a signature move, the Trump administration has ghosted another major international climate agreement. The Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) — a $45bn fund to help countries like South Africa, Indonesia, and Vietnam ditch coal — just lost $1bn in promised US support.

The withdrawal came via a curt 166-word memo that read like a breakup text: “Effective immediately, we’re out. Also, don’t call.”

It’s part of a broader “America First” climate strategy, which mainly involves drilling more and funding less. Alongside gutting global partnerships, the US also pulled the plug on HIV/AIDS aid to South Africa and declared the country’s ambassador persona non grata. Subtle.

The EU Breaks Out the Wallet

But the EU — apparently still in “we’ve got this” mode — has stepped in with a €4.7bn ($5.1bn) commitment to cover part of the hole. South Africa’s environment minister called it proof that the transition is too far along to derail. And EC President Ursula von der Leyen made sure to clap back at the US, saying the EU is “doubling down.”

In other words: America’s out, Europe’s in, and the clean energy party continues — just with one fewer bottle of bubbly.

Still, this isn’t just about money. It’s about leadership, leverage, and who gets to write the climate rulebook. And right now, the US is handing the pen to anyone else who wants it.

China Eyes the Vacuum

Guess who’s more than happy to fill the void? China, obviously. Analysts expect Beijing to slide into the space left by Washington — financing, tech, influence — and do it on their own terms.

This could reshape global climate policy in a big way. Not necessarily bad, but certainly different. Less Paris, more Belt-and-Road. And if you're wondering how thrilled the US will be about China leading the green transition… they're not.

Meanwhile, places like South Africa are stuck managing diplomacy with one hand and trying to decarbonize with the other. They're also watching the clock — COP30 is in Brazil this November, and it's already being billed as a test of whether the global climate coalition can hold without its most volatile member.

The Takeaway:
America’s out, the EU’s in, and China’s circling the table. But the energy transition isn’t stopping — it’s just being rerouted. In true climate fashion, the path forward is messy, political, and increasingly multipolar. If this were a Netflix series, this would be the mid-season plot twist: the main character walks off, and suddenly the supporting cast gets a lot more interesting.