Welcome back to The Strawman, the daily climate newsletter that’s more reliable than Argentina’s rainfall. Today, we’re heading to the country’s drought-stricken farmland, where withering crops are threatening both farmers and the nation’s already fragile economy.

The Corn Won’t Come Back

Farmers in Argentina are staring at dying cornfields, wilting soybeans, and the reality that no amount of wishful thinking will bring them back. A brutal combination of drought and heat has already slashed crop forecasts, with estimates for soybeans and corn falling to around 49 million tons—and that’s if it rains soon.

If February stays dry, experts warn yields could drop below 40 million tons, making this one of the worst harvests in years. For a country that relies on grain exports to stabilise its battered economy, this isn’t just a farming problem—it’s a full-blown economic crisis in the making.

Argentina’s Economy Is Tied to the Land

Argentina is one of the world’s biggest exporters of soy oil, soy meal, and corn, and those exports provide desperately needed foreign currency to prop up the peso. With inflation running wild and the government scrambling to stabilise finances, every ton of lost grain is a blow to state coffers.

President Javier Milei has tried to speed up grain sales by slashing export taxes—cutting soybean levies from 33% to 26% and corn from 12% to 9.5%—but the impact has been underwhelming. Farmers say they’re barely seeing the benefits, and with low yields and high costs, many simply don’t have much grain to sell.

A High-Stakes Waiting Game

The next few weeks are critical. If the rains come, Argentina’s harvest could limp to a half-decent finish. If they don’t, production could crater, pushing food prices higher and worsening the country’s economic turmoil.

Even if the weather plays nice, farmers still face high input costs, lower global prices, and a market that isn’t responding as hoped to tax cuts. The government needs export revenue, farmers need relief, and the weather—well, it doesn’t take orders from anyone.

The Strawman’s Takeaway

Argentina’s farmers are used to tough conditions, but this year’s drought is hitting at a moment when the country can least afford it. The government’s tax cuts were meant to boost sales, but with crops failing and stocks low, there’s not much left to sell. Now, all eyes are on the sky—because without rain, the country’s economic forecast will look just as dry as its fields.