Welcome to The Strawman, the daily climate newsletter that’s back and ready to offset months of silence (no carbon credits required). Today, we're digging into Microsoft's latest attempt to clean up its AI-fueled emissions surge—by planting a whole lot of trees.

Can Trees Offset AI’s Energy Hunger?

Microsoft just signed a deal to buy 3.5 million carbon credits over 25 years from Brazilian start-up Re.green. The goal? Restore farmland and cattle pastures into thriving forests. The price tag? Likely around $200 million, making Microsoft one of the biggest players in the nature-based carbon removal game.

Why the urgency? AI is hungry—very hungry. As data centers expand to fuel the generative AI boom, Microsoft’s emissions have soared by 40% since 2020, hitting 17 million tonnes in 2023. That's the carbon equivalent of about 4 million gas-guzzling cars hitting the road.

Tech giants like Google and Amazon are in the same boat—trying to power the future without torching the planet. Their solution? Buy credits now, cross their fingers, and hope no one asks too many questions.

Carbon Credits: A Shortcut or a Solution?

The carbon offset market has a mixed reputation—it's like the Wild West, but with tree planting instead of cowboys. While projects like Re.green promise to restore vital ecosystems, they come with risks. Fires, droughts, and mismanagement can erase carbon savings in a flash.

Microsoft and others previously focused on high-tech solutions—like capturing CO₂ and locking it underground—but those options are expensive and slow to scale. Trees, on the other hand, are a relatively cheap and fast fix, with credits selling for as little as $20 per tonne (or as high as $82, if you want the fancy ones).

Whether these efforts are a meaningful step forward or just an eco-friendly band-aid, one thing's for sure: Microsoft’s planting trees like it’s trying to win a game of FarmVille (+10 points if you remember that game).

The Rising Carbon Cost of Our Digital Future

While tech companies keep promising to go “carbon negative,” the AI boom is making it harder than ever. Data centers are still running on grids powered by oil, gas, and coal, meaning every chat, search, and AI-generated cat picture adds to the emissions tally.

Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are scrambling for solutions—be it wind, solar, or even nuclear—but the reality is that AI's demand is growing faster than clean energy can keep up. In the meantime, nature-based carbon credits are the go-to fix.

At this rate, their net-zero goals might need more than just tree planting; they might need a miracle.

The Strawman’s Takeaway

Microsoft’s rainforest restoration bet is a big step, but it’s also a band-aid on a much larger wound. As AI’s energy appetite grows, tech companies need more than just carbon credits to meet their climate goals—they need real systemic change.

Until then, expect more deals, more offsets, and more questions about whether Big Tech’s green promises are rooted in reality—or just a clever(?) way to buy time.

— The Strawman