Welcome back to The Strawman, your daily dose of climate news that’s as reliable as a solar panel on a sunny day—except we don’t stop working when clouds roll in. Today, we’re diving into China’s coal surge and what it means for its green future. Spoiler: it’s complicated.

The Coal Comeback

China’s construction of coal-fired power plants surged to 94.5GW of capacity in 2024, the highest level in nearly a decade. While China also set records for wind and solar growth, the simultaneous coal expansion casts doubt on President Xi Jinping’s pledge to peak carbon emissions by 2030.

The report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea) and Global Energy Monitor (GEM) highlighted the contradiction: rather than replacing coal, renewables are being added on top of an entrenched coal dependency. The result? A more carbon-heavy power system despite China’s green ambitions.

Why the Coal Surge?

Several structural factors in China’s power generation market are driving the coal expansion:

• Locked-in contracts: Long-term coal power purchase agreements discourage buyers from switching to renewables.

• Coal mining influence: Coal companies funded 75% of newly approved coal power capacity, pushing forward projects even when market fundamentals didn’t justify them.

• Local energy autonomy: The absence of a unified national power market means regions are building their own coal plants for local energy security.

This parallel growth of coal and renewables risks turning coal plants into permanent backup players for renewables, further entrenching their role in China’s power system.

A Balancing Act

China’s clean energy transition remains one of the fastest globally, with 356GW of wind and solar added in 2024—almost matching the total capacity of the United States. However, analysts worry that coal and renewables are competing for grid space.

In Q4 of 2024, fossil fuel generation stayed high despite slowing electricity demand, while wind and solar saw lower utilisation. This could be attributed to coal plants receiving capacity payments, ensuring their profitability even at reduced output.

Some believe a national market for power balancing could reduce the need for more regional coal plants and help renewables take a larger share of the grid. Others note that China’s coal fleet is already underused, with plants operating at just 50% capacity on average. Adding more stations will likely lower that figure further.

The Strawman’s Takeaway

China’s clean energy transition is real, but its coal expansion complicates the picture. Unless structural market reforms are made, coal may continue to act as a safety net—limiting how far and fast renewables can truly transform the grid.