Welcome to The Strawman, the daily climate newsletter that’s more conflicted than your friend who says they’re “cutting carbs” but orders garlic bread.

Today, we’re unpacking Indonesia’s ambitious pledge to quit coal while tiptoeing into renewables. Spoiler: It’s like trying to win a marathon by walking backwards.

Coal's Last Hurrah: Indonesia's Love-Hate Relationship with Fossil Fuels

Indonesia generates 66% of its electricity from coal, and the black rock isn’t just sticking around—it’s thriving. Since signing the Paris Climate Agreement, the country has doubled its coal capacity. That’s like someone signing a “no desserts” pact and then bingeing on double-fudge brownies.

Why the coal addiction? It’s fueling Indonesia’s nickel industry, a global EV battery lifeline. With exceptions carved out for “strategic industries,” coal seems to have a lifetime supply of “get out of jail free” cards, even as President Prabowo promises a coal-free future by 2040.

A Billion Here, a Trillion There: Financing the Energy Transition

Ambitious climate targets are great—until you see the invoice. Experts estimate Indonesia needs $1.2 trillion to build renewable infrastructure by 2050, plus another $28 billion to retire coal plants early. Current renewable investments in 2023? A modest $1.5 billion. That’s like showing up to buy a Ferrari with loose change.

The problem isn’t just money—it’s policy. Coal gets subsidies and price caps, making it dirt cheap. Meanwhile, renewables face profitability hurdles due to low price ceilings and government mandates that favor the state utility. International funding exists (a $22 billion pledge from the US, Japan, and others), but only a fraction has been disbursed.

Renewables on an Island Time Schedule

Indonesia’s geography reads like a renewable energy fairy tale: 17,000 islands packed with sun, wind, hydro, and geothermal potential. The catch? Most of it’s far from Java, where half the population lives. Without serious investments in transmission lines and energy storage, these renewable dreams are stranded on remote beaches.

To hit the target of 8 gigawatts of new renewables annually, Indonesia needs to phase out fossil fuel subsidies, slash red tape, and sweeten the pot for private investors. Right now, progress is slower than a Monday morning commute in Jakarta.

The Strawman’s Takeaway

Indonesia’s energy transition feels like a classic underdog story. The ambition is there, but the execution? A work in progress. Until coal’s VIP status gets revoked and renewables find real financial and policy backing, Prabowo’s promises risk being about as sturdy as a sandcastle at high tide.

That’s all from us today - until tomorrow ;)

— The Strawman