🧃Green Trade War, Anyone?

Welcome to The Strawman, the daily climate newsletter that’s here for the vibes and the volatility. You know the world's in a strange place when deforestation, trade tariffs, and quantum computing all make equal appearances in the climate discourse. Today, we’re diving into the geopolitical mess that’s looming over COP30 - and why the Amazon might host more than just heat this November.

The Tariff Tango

There’s a party trick no one asked for: trying to decarbonise the planet while the biggest economies slap each other with trade barriers. Ana Toni, Brazil’s climate chief and the head honcho of this year’s COP30 in Belém, isn’t exactly feeling optimistic. As she puts it, the world’s decarbonisation effort could get choked not by a lack of ambition — but by a lack of access to the tools that make it possible.

Why? Because the U.S. under Trump 2.0 has reignited trade war rhetoric just as we need global collaboration the most. Tariffs on clean tech (think EVs and solar panels) might sound like a domestic win, but they risk making vital green tech unaffordable for the rest of the world. And let’s not forget — when global supply chains get duplicated to dodge tariffs, emissions usually spike too. So much for “America First” in a planetary crisis.

Action, Not Admin

This year’s summit is shaping up to be less about paperwork and more about momentum. Toni’s message is clear: the negotiations are basically done. Now it’s time to move — fast.

COP30 will be the first conference held after humanity blew past the 1.5°C annual threshold. That doesn’t technically break the Paris Agreement (which focuses on long-term averages), but it’s the climate equivalent of your car’s check engine light flashing and the brakes squealing.

Rather than getting bogged down in treaty language, Toni wants Belém to be where the world figures out how to accelerate deployment of climate solutions. But that vision will be tested by a pretty chaotic geopolitical backdrop: a fragmented US, rising nationalist movements, and climate finance that still hasn’t materialised.

Brazil’s Balancing Act

Of course, Brazil’s not exactly coming to the table with clean hands. The government has faced heat over oil exploration plans and joining the OPEC+ club — a weird look for a country supposedly leading the charge on green transition.

Toni’s defence? Being in OPEC+ means they can talk about winding down oil from the inside. Critics may call that wishful thinking, but Brazil’s playing the long game: trying to stay relevant to both climate and commodity agendas.

As for Belém’s new road, which slices through forest on the summit’s doorstep? “Necessary infrastructure,” says Toni. The optics are…not great. But it underscores a core tension that’ll be front and centre at COP30: how do developing countries expand access and opportunity while cutting emissions and protecting ecosystems?

Takeaway: With the US stepping back and trade tensions rising, Brazil is trying to lead a COP at a time when climate diplomacy feels like herding cats in a thunderstorm. If COP30 is going to work, it’ll need fewer speeches — and a lot more speed.