Welcome back to The Strawman—today, we’re diving into a global leaderboard no one wants to top; emissions data and how it compares against climate goals.

The Top Five Emitters: Big Footprints, Slow Steps

Despite a renewable energy surge, China remains the world’s largest emitter, contributing about 27% of global CO₂e emissions. The US follows, holding the title of biggest emitter per capita, with India, Russia, and Brazil rounding out the top five. Together, these nations account for half the planet’s emissions. China’s emissions grew by less than 1% last year—thanks to a slower manufacturing sector and a rise in electric vehicles—while the US’s climate trajectory hinges on whether new leadership sticks with or scraps emissions cuts.

Climate Targets: Deadlines Missed, Goals Slipping

Countries had until February 10, 2025, to update their national climate commitments (NDCs), but only a handful met the deadline. The UN warns that without rapid cuts, the world is on track for a disastrous 3°C temperature rise by the century’s end. With global temperatures already 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels and annual averages flirting with 1.5°C, the Paris Agreement’s goal is slipping out of reach. Methane reduction has emerged as a quick win—particularly crucial given its high heat-trapping potency—though implementation remains patchy.

Progress vs. Politics: The Road Ahead

While China’s emissions may peak before 2030, and the US has cut emissions since their 2007 peak, political shifts threaten progress. Developing countries like India are balancing emissions cuts with economic growth, using carbon intensity targets to account for GDP expansion. Meanwhile, countries’ use of different baseline years complicates direct comparisons, with many choosing years that coincide with historical emission peaks to make reductions appear more substantial — environmental gerrymandering, if you will.

Takeaway

With COP30 on the horizon, the world’s largest emitters face mounting pressure to accelerate cuts. Yet, without stronger commitments—and fewer missed deadlines—the path to 1.5°C may soon be out of reach. For now, the climate leaderboard is less about who’s winning and more about who needs to catch up.