Welcome back to The Strawman, the daily climate newsletter that’s checking the thermometer and realizing it’s broken (just like the planet). Today, we’re diving into studies warning us that the era of 1.5°C warming isn’t coming — it’s already knocking at the door. Let’s unpack it before we all melt.

The Paris Accord’s Goal? Not Looking Good

Two new studies suggest that the world is hitting the 1.5°C warming limit set by the Paris Agreement much sooner than expected.

Originally, scientists estimated we’d breach the threshold by 2045. Then the forecast shifted to the early 2030s. Now? One study claims we’ve already entered the period in which that breach could happen — unless we cut emissions fast.

Last year was the hottest year on record, with 2024 temperatures spiking well above pre-industrial levels. If this trend continues for just 18 more months, scientists say sustained warming is almost inevitable.

The message is clear: urgent action is no longer optional.

So, What’s the Damage?

The consequences of warming beyond 1.5°C are far from trivial. Scientists warn of:

• Increased extreme weather events — think more intense heatwaves and storms.

• Biodiversity loss — species and ecosystems will struggle to adapt.

• Coral bleaching — the world’s reefs could be wiped out.

• Rising seas — not just a beach problem, but a global crisis.

Experts are now focused on how much we can limit the overshoot of 1.5°C — because every fraction of a degree matters.

No Time for Complacency

Tim Lenton, a lead author of the IPCC report, believes we’re already committed to exceeding 1.5°C. He stresses that while we might get a slightly cooler year here and there, the longer we remain in this danger zone, the more damage we’ll face.

Piers Forster, another IPCC author, agrees: “We haven’t even felt all the impacts of a 1.5°C warmer world yet. But the longer we stay at or above this level, the worse it will get.”

Translation: It’s bad, but it can always get worse.

The Strawman’s Takeaway

The question is no longer if we’ll pass 1.5°C but how badly we’ll overshoot it. Every action counts, and cutting emissions can still help avoid the worst outcomes. But the clock is ticking louder than ever.