🧃Tariff Wars & Trade Choreography

Welcome to today’s edition The Strawman, the daily climate newsletter that's not sure if "supply chain diplomacy" is a new strategy or just a really boring Netflix genre.

China’s President Xi Jinping has kicked off a Southeast Asia tour with a visit to Vietnam, where the red carpet came with rails, jets, and a stack of cooperation agreements. The backdrop? A looming tariff storm courtesy of Washington. Xi’s message was clear: let’s play nice - and keep trade flowing smoothly - without mentioning the U.S. by name. (Very subtle, Xi.)

Train Deals & Jet Feels

Xi’s Hanoi stop involved a flurry of handshake-heavy agreements, many focused on keeping China-Vietnam trade running on time - literally. Both sides are planning new rail links, with Vietnam even agreeing to use Chinese loans for the project (although no actual loan figures have been dropped yet). The two also bonded over aviation: Vietnam’s VietJet signed a memorandum of understanding with China’s COMAC, marking the debut of the Chinese-made C909 passenger jets in the region. A shiny jet with VietJet livery even made a cameo at the Hanoi airport. COMAC’s long-struggling attempt to break into foreign markets might finally be getting some lift-off.

Vietnam’s Tightrope Walk

Vietnam is in a delicate dance between its two biggest trading partners. It imports heavily from China, while the U.S. is its top export market. With the U.S. threatening 46% tariffs come July, Vietnam’s been busy tightening its export protocols, especially to prevent Chinese goods from being sneakily relabeled as “Made in Vietnam.” That includes stricter certificate rules and new measures to ensure there’s actual Vietnamese value in what’s shipped out. They’ve also started cracking down on Chinese steel dumping and scrapped tax breaks for low-value Chinese goods. Basically: don’t make Vietnam pick sides - it just wants to keep the factory humming.

Tariffs, Tech, and Tensions

Beyond planes and trains, the China-Vietnam hugfest had a few thorns. Xi called for deeper AI and green economy ties, but friction’s never far beneath the surface. The South China Sea remains a recurring sore spot, and Vietnam’s recent green light for Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite service probably didn’t earn it any brownie points in Beijing. Plus, agreeing to tighter trade controls under U.S. pressure? Not exactly the kind of “cooperation” China likes to see. Still, for now, both countries seem keen to keep the economic engine running - even if it's a bit rickety under the hood.

Takeaway 

Xi’s Southeast Asia charm tour is all about showing trade unity - but beneath the public pledges are some shifting allegiances and some serious tariff turbulence.